2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Jack Quaid and Zazie Beetz appeared to have fun announcing last year’s nominations. Who knows if they actually had fun - they are actors, after all.

Now that I have this blog up and running, I thought I'd take a stab at predicting the 2025 Oscar Nominations for the films of 2024. Originally scheduled for January 17, the nominations have been delayed to January 23 due to the extremely unfortunate circumstances regarding the devastating wildfires in southern California. This has given me a few more days to mull over some thoughts, but at this point we've seen all the major precursors and I'm ready to throw these at the wall and see what sticks.

I should probably start by saying that I enjoy following the Oscar race and think the resulting nominations and winners provide an interesting look at what the film industry (in the USA in particular) thought about the year in film. I don't put much weight into anything other than that. I don't get particularly involved in "rooting" for various films or performances; frequently my tastes land a little outside what the general "Oscar voter" tastes are. I also don't think being nominated or not nominated for an Academy Award has any bearing on whether or not a film is "good" or "worth watching." To me, it's fun to see what films are in the conversation and we can then look at these nominations as time capsules in the future, as the perception of many of this year's contenders I'm sure will change over time.

There are some categories that I'm more familiar with than others, but I've tried to provide some reasoning for my picks in all instances. Sometimes my evidence is worthwhile, sometimes it may not be... I'm not a professional by any means, just someone who thought he'd have some fun and take a shot at predicting these and seeing how many I end up getting right.

I'm organizing this as follows: starting with the below the line categories, and ending with above the line categories, building up to Best Picture. The three short film categories will be at the very end, since those are absolute random guesses with no educated thought behind them. I'm also organizing my lineup with various line breaks as follows:

Locks

—————————————————————————————————————

Currently in the field, but could miss

——————————————————————————

Not in the field, but strong contenders

—————————————————————————————————————

Dark horse contenders

The number of locks and contenders will vary with each category. For shortlisted categories, I have included all possible contenders somewhere in the prediction list.

Without further ado, let's jump into the below the line categories.

Below the Line Categories:

Best Animated Feature:

Is The Wild Robot still the frontrunner for Best Animated Feature?

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Inside Out 2

4. Memoir of a Snail

5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

——————————————————————————

6. Moana 2

Let's start with animated feature, which is the only category in which I feel confident in all five nominees. Anything other than The Wild Robot, Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, or Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl being nominated at this point would be a surprise - all nominations at the major ceremonies have been some combination of these five films. The best I could do for an alternate is Moana 2, which did make the Golden Globe field of six, but it didn't land an Annie nomination and was not particularly well received when it came out. Despite the Disney name and pedigree, I'd be pretty surprised to see it crack the field.

Best Documentary Feature:

There’s no such thing as a “lock” for a documentary feature nomination, but No Other Land feels like a pretty safe bet.

**NO LOCKS**

—————————————————————————————————————

1. No Other Land

2. Sugarcane

3. Daughters

4. Black Box Diaries

5. Dahomey

——————————————————————————

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d'État

7. Will and Harper

—————————————————————————————————————

8. The Bibi Files

9. Porcelain War

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

11. Union

12. Frida

13. Hollywoodgate

14. Queendom

15. Eno

From all locks to no locks - the documentary category is never safe, and I don't think there are any films here that I feel confident won't get snubbed. That said, I feel pretty good about No Other Land, Sugarcane, and Daughters making the field. I was between Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, and Soundtrack to a Coup d'État for the final two slots, and eventually landed on Black Box Diaries, which I think is a pretty accessible documentary (despite the subject matter) and Mati Diop's Dahomey which will cater much more to the arthouse crowd and international voters. However, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Soundtrack made the cut. Will and Harper also seems like a possibility, but the branch has steered clear of big celebrity documentaries recently - although this is certainly a different approach than most. The Bibi Files and Porcelain War are potential sleeper candidates that haven't been as discussed as others but feature timely subject matter dealing with current world events.

Best International Film:

I’m Still Here should be safely in for an international film nomination - give everyone in Brazil some ice cream!

1. Emilia Pérez (France)
2. I'm Still Here (Brazil)

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

—————————————————————————————————————

4. Flow (Latvia)

5. Kneecap (Ireland)

——————————————————————————

6. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

7. Vermiglio (Italy)

8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)

—————————————————————————————————————

9. Universal Language (Canada)

10. From Ground Zero (Palestine)

11. Dahomey (Senegal)

12. Touch (Iceland)

13. Santosh (United Kingdom)

14. Armand (Norway)

15. Waves (Czech Republic)

The race for best international film seemed over from the start, as it would be a shock if anything other than Emilia Pérez took home the trophy, considering the numerous other nominations it's expected to get. Backed by a strong best actress candidate and great critical acclaim, I'm Still Here should be safely in too. I would anticipate The Seed of the Sacred Fig is safe, but we sometimes see bizarre snubs in this category (A Hero and Decision to Leave come to mind) and Seed seems like a potential candidate if that were to happen again.

For the final two slots, I'm picking two films that seem to have really picked up steam the past few weeks. Flow has been receiving great international acclaim and upset The Wild Robot for best animated feature at the Golden Globes. Meanwhile, Kneecap scooped up BAFTA nominations left and right. Those seem like films with much more passion in the moment than The Girl with the Needle and Vermiglio. This is a very western lineup (especially as The Seed of the Sacred Fig is representing Germany rather than Iran), so if we were to see an Asian film sneak in I think it would be How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies.

It's important to note that each country can only choose one film to submit for consideration for this award, otherwise several other films would be in contention (most notably Payal Kapadia's All We Imagine as Light, which was not selected by India).

Best Cinematography:

Did Nosferatu scare the Academy into awarding it a cinematography nomination?

1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part Two

3. Nosferatu

—————————————————————————————————————

4. Conclave

5. Maria

——————————————————————————

6. Nickel Boys

7. A Complete Unknown

8. Wicked

9. Emilia Pérez

10. The Girl with the Needle

—————————————————————————————————————

11. The Substance

12. Challengers

13. I'm Still Here

14. Gladiator II

The American Society of Cinematographers recently announced seven nominees for their ASC feature film award, and I have to imagine our Oscar 5 is somewhere in that 7. Conspicuously absent was Nickel Boys, which now feels very much in danger of missing here, and I've moved in Ed Lachmann's work on Maria instead. A Complete Unknown and Wicked are the two ASC nominees I'm leaving out, as they seem the least likely to happen here, but they're in play, as is The Girl with the Needle due to the cinematography branch's frequent desire to include some black-and-white films in the category. 

Best Production Design:

Glinda prepares to conjure up a production design nomination for Wicked.

1. Wicked
2. The Brutalist

3. Dune: Part Two

4. Conclave

—————————————————————————————————————

5. Nosferatu

——————————————————————————

6. Gladiator II

7. Emilia Pérez

8. A Complete Unknown

—————————————————————————————————————

9. Blitz

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

11. The Substance

I feel pretty good about Wicked, The Brutalist, and Dune: Part Two here, and I think the recreation of the Vatican in Conclave will impress folks enough to earn a nomination. For the final slot I'm torn between Nosferatu and Gladiator II, and in the end I'm going with the more acclaimed of the two films.

Best Costume Design:

Pedro Pascal prepares for battle in the event Gladiator II misses a costume design nomination.

1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two

—————————————————————————————————————

3. Nosferatu

4. Gladiator II

5. Conclave

——————————————————————————

6. Maria

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

8. A Complete Unknown

—————————————————————————————————————

9. The Brutalist

10. The Substance

11. Blitz

12. Emilia Pérez

13. I'm Still Here

Swap Gladiator II for The Brutalist in my production design lineup and you've got my costume design predictions. I haven't followed this category nearly as much as others, but all five of these options seem reasonable enough to me.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

If you say “Beetlejuice” a fourth time, legend says it conjures up a makeup nomination.

1. The Substance
2. Wicked

3. Nosferatu

—————————————————————————————————————

4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

5. A Different Man

——————————————————————————

6. Emilia Pérez

7. Dune: Part Two

8. Waltzing with Brando

9. The Apprentice

—————————————————————————————————————

10. Maria

The Substance seems like the favorite here, despite the frequent anti-horror bias of the Academy, and I feel good about Wicked and Nosferatu showing up as well. It feels a little uncomfortable throwing Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and A Different Man in over best picture contenders Emilia Pérez and Dune: Part Two, but it just seems like those two films have more to offer from a makeup perspective. Also keep an eye out for the virtually unknown and unseen Waltzing with Brando, which seems like exactly the kind of obscure prosthetics-heavy film we've seen get nominations in previous years.

Best Sound:

Bob Dylan testing the mic to ensure a sound nomination for A Complete Unknown.

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked

—————————————————————————————————————

3. A Complete Unknown

4. Gladiator II

5. Emilia Pérez

——————————————————————————

6. Alien: Romulus

7. Blitz

—————————————————————————————————————

8. The Wild Robot

9. Deadpool and Wolverine

10. Joker: Folie a Deux

Sound is a shortlisted category and we've got ten to choose from. Joker: Folie a Deux, Deadpool and Wolverine, and The Wild Robot seem unlikely. I've heard good things about the sound in Blitz but its underperformance elsewhere makes me cautious. I'm tempted to throw Alien: Romulus in here because of its three shortlist appearances, but in the end I'm going with a combination of musical films and big-budget spectacles over the horror entry.

Best Visual Effects:

Hope you like sand as much as the visual effects branch likely will.

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3. Wicked

—————————————————————————————————————

4. Gladiator II

5. Alien: Romulus

——————————————————————————

6. Better Man

7. Twisters

—————————————————————————————————————

8. Civil War

9. Deadpool and Wolverine

10. Mufasa: The Lion King

Dune: Part Two alongside Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Wicked seem pretty comfortable to pencil in here. I feel like Gladiator II has the potential to be a snub candidate but it's probably in. Better Man is likely the safer pick at #5 here (and would complete a monkey-heavy lineup) but I stubbornly feel like rewarding Alien: Romulus for its surprising shortlist appearances and after passing over it for sound I'm calling a surprise nomination here.

Best Score:

If Challengers snags a score nomination, diehard fans will be wearing that “I Told Ya” shirt.

1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave

3. Emilia Pérez

—————————————————————————————————————

4. Challengers

5. The Wild Robot

——————————————————————————

6. Wicked

7. Nosferatu

—————————————————————————————————————

8. The Room Next Door

9. Sing Sing

10. Blitz

11. Gladiator II

12. Inside Out 2

13. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

14. Young Woman and the Sea

15. Babygirl

16. Alien: Romulus

17. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1

18. The Fire Inside

19. Blink Twice

20. The Six Triple Eight

I'm going chalky with score here, but I'm struggling to see who out of the top 5 could miss. The score for Challengers may be a little polarizing and The Wild Robot is going up against recent precedence of animated film scores missing the nomination, but I don't feel confident enough with anything else to knock either of them out.

Best Original Song:

Will the magical powers of Diane Warren strike again?

1. "El Mal" (Emilia Pérez)
2. "Mi Camino" (Emilia Pérez)

3. "Kiss the Sky" (The Wild Robot)

—————————————————————————————————————

4. "The Journey" (The Six Triple Eight)

5. "Compress/Repress" (Challengers)

——————————————————————————

6. "Like a Bird" (Sing Sing)

7. "Harper and Will Go West" (Will and Harper)

8. "Sick in the Head" (Kneecap)

—————————————————————————————————————

9. "Piece by Piece" (Piece by Piece)

10. "Never Too Late" (Elton John: Never Too Late)

11. "Tell Me It's You" (Mufasa: The Lion King)

12. "Beyond" (Moana 2)

13. "Out of Oklahoma" (Twisters)

14. "Winter Coat" (Blitz)

I think you can lock up the two Emilia Pérez songs here, and "Kiss the Sky" feels pretty safe as well. Until Diane Warren misses I think it's foolish not to predict her, so in goes "The Journey" from The Six Triple Eight. For the final spot, there's several options - "Harper and Will Go West", "Like a Bird", or maybe even "Sick in the Head" due to the recent surge in Kneecap passion, but I'm sticking with a double nomination for Reznor and Ross and throwing "Compress/Repress" in the field.

Best Film Editing:

Will the Academy vote to award Conclave an editing nomination?

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Conclave

3. Anora

4. Emilia Pérez

—————————————————————————————————————

5. Challengers

——————————————————————————

6. The Brutalist

7. September 5

8. A Complete Unknown

—————————————————————————————————————

9. Wicked

10. The Substance

11. Nickel Boys

12. Civil War

For best editing, I feel good about the top 4 as strong best picture contenders. The Brutalist seems to be a strong possibility for the fifth slot, but I'm hesitant - it missed some key precursors and I think the overall length of the film may work against it. September 5 could surge in here and snag a nomination, but at the moment I think Challengers makes a little more sense.

Above the Line Categories:

Best Original Screenplay:

Will the wild ride of Anora be worthy of an original screenplay nomination?

1. Anora
2. A Real Pain

3. The Brutalist

4. The Substance

—————————————————————————————————————

5. Hard Truths

——————————————————————————

6. Challengers

7. September 5

—————————————————————————————————————

8. All We Imagine as Light

9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Anora, A Real Pain, and The Brutalist all feel safe here, and The Substance - despite not having a ton of dialogue - has had enough success so far that I'm comfortable predicting it. Having just seen Hard Truths it certainly seems like it belongs in this category - the question really is how good do I feel about predicting Bleecker Street to guide it to a nomination. The answer is... not great, but I just can't bring myself to put something else over it. Challengers and September 5 are probably the other top contenders, while All We Imagine as Light or The Seed of the Sacred Fig are a couple non-English contenders that could maybe snag a spot in the same way that The Worst Person in the World did a couple years ago.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Nickel Boys hopes to receive an adapted screenplay nomination.

1. Conclave

2. Emilia Pérez

—————————————————————————————————————

3. A Complete Unknown

4. Nickel Boys

5. Sing Sing

——————————————————————————

6. Wicked

7. Dune: Part Two

—————————————————————————————————————

8. I'm Still Here

I don't feel particularly great about anything here except best picture juggernauts Conclave and Emilia Pérez. With the rise of A Complete Unknown elsewhere I think it could translate to a screenplay nomination. I have to imagine that Nickel Boys will get nominated somewhere, and this is probably it's best shot (although I don't feel great about it). Sing Sing has had a wildly inconsistent awards run so far, but I'm thinking it's a more writer-friendly film than Wicked or Dune: Part Two and hence I'm sneaking it into the final slot.

Best Supporting Actress:

Can Zoe Saldaña sing and dance her way to an Oscar?

1. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked)

—————————————————————————————————————

3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

4. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

5. Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)

——————————————————————————

6. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)

7. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)

8. Margaret Qualley (The Substance)

9. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

—————————————————————————————————————

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)

Only two actresses feel like sure things here - Saldaña and Grande. There's several potential contenders for the last three slots. She may not be in Conclave for long, but I feel good about Rossellini getting in. Minimal screen time hasn't hurt supporting actors in the past (see Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans) and Rossellini has both a memorable scene and a great career narrative. Felicity Jones hasn't hit all of her precursors, but I think she makes the most sense of the remaining contenders.

It was tempting to pencil Qualley into a spot - until she missed both SAG and BAFTA lineups. Now, her early season awards love feels more like internet hype than anything else, and we need to look no further than Charles Melton last year for a comparable trajectory. If she gets in it would be a fun surprise, but I'm not predicting her. If the Academy is really feeling the Emilia Pérez love it's certainly possible Gomez gets nominated alongside Saldaña, and a surge for Barbaro as Joan Baez is within the realm of possibility considering A Complete Unknown's rise elsewhere. Danielle Deadwyler is currently fifth in the odds, but I don't feel confident that The Piano Lesson will get the exposure that some of these other films are getting. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor at once felt like a potential frontrunner, but she's now faded all the way back to dark horse territory.

This is all leading to a stunning nomination that I would not have even considered more than a week ago - but I'm going with Jamie Lee Curtis in The Last Showgirl. She received both SAG and BAFTA nominations and is no stranger to a late season surge, having just won this very award two years ago in that exact manner. It seems like her performance is surging at exactly the right time and as of today I'm sneaking her onto my top 5.

Best Supporting Actor:

Can anyone stop Kieran Culkin from snagging that supporting actor trophy?

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
2. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

—————————————————————————————————————

3. Yura Borisov (Anora)

4. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

——————————————————————————

6. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)

—————————————————————————————————————

7. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

8. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)

Can anyone stop Kieran Culkin here? It doesn't seem likely, but we'll still need to find four other nominees. I feel pretty confident Norton is happening. I'm a tiny bit skeptical about Borisov due to his more subtle performance and lack of name recognition, but he's gotten everything he's needed in the precursors and it wouldn't make much sense to not predict him. Pearce has missed at a couple spots, but from everything I've heard about his performance it would be a surprise to see him miss.

That brings us to the final slot, which I think is between Strong and Maclin. Both received BAFTA nominations in a lineup of 6, so I'm going to defer to SAG, which nominated Strong but not Maclin. However, we could just as easily hear Maclin's name read on Oscar nomination morning - this truly feels like a toss-up at this point.

Best Actress:

Demi Moore should be able to see a best actress nomination the next time she looks in the mirror.

1. Mikey Madison (Anora)
2. Demi Moore (The Substance)

3. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)

—————————————————————————————————————

4. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)

——————————————————————————

6. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

—————————————————————————————————————

7. Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)

8. Angelina Jolie (Maria)

9. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)

10. Kate Winslet (Lee)

11. Saiorse Ronan (The Outrun)

Best Actress has had a wild ride thus far. The only person who began the season as a frontrunner and still remains up at the top is Mikey Madison. I had been doubting The Substance for a while due to the Academy's genre bias (and still am in some categories) but Demi Moore has been nominated everywhere and won the comedy/musical Golden Globe over Madison, Gascón, and Erivo). She should be safely in. Karla Sofía Gascón seems comfortably in as well.

That leaves the final two slots, which to me are up in the air primarily between three contenders. The consensus is that Cynthia Erivo is safely in for Wicked, and it makes sense - she's gotten the precursors she needs, and she's given an acclaimed performance in a popular film. However, that leaves two deserving international nominees in Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Fernanda Torres. Jean-Baptiste has been absolutely dominating critics awards, winning New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and NSFC among many many others. From a critical perspective, if she missed her snub would be historic - at the level (or maybe beyond) of Ethan Hawke missing for First Reformed.

Torres, meanwhile, won the drama Golden Globe - an award that has practically guaranteed nominations. The only two instances where the Golden Globe drama winner has not received an Oscar nominations were Shirley Maclaine for Madame Sousatzka in 1988 and Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road in 2008. However, even those two have huge caveats - Maclaine's win was a three-way tie, and the other two winners received Oscar nominations, while Winslet was nominated at the Oscars, but for a different movie (The Reader). Hence, a Torres miss here would be historic. She also has a strong campaign team behind her in Sony Pictures Classics, who just got Penelope Cruz nominated for a performance in Parallel Mothers that received much less fanfare than Torres'.

Of course, there's good reasons to not predict either Jean-Baptiste or Torres. In Jean-Baptiste's case, Hard Truths studio Bleecker Street has not had a great track record as a campaigner, and she also missed the Golden Globe comedy/musical nomination (in a field of 6). Torres, meanwhile, didn't even make it on the BAFTA longlist, and you can also poke some holes in her Globe victory - the voting body is more international than it use to be, and this is the rare year when the comedy/musical category was much stronger with regards to Oscar contenders than the drama category. That said, I can't bring myself to remove either of them from my predictions - they both feel like they've done enough to be in.

As a result, I'm bucking the trend and calling a snub of Erivo. I don't think it would be that far off from recent misses by Margot Robbie for Barbie and Viola Davis for The Woman King, acting performances from more populist films that had precursors and acclaim but got squeezed out of the final lineup. Predicting Erivo is the safe bet here, but I wanted to go out on a limb in at least one of these major categories - why not do it here?

As far as long shots go, I think Pamela Anderson for The Last Showgirl maybe has the best chance coming off of her SAG nomination. Angelina Jolie was once the frontrunner in this category, but after missing almost all the precursors she's completely fallen off the map. Kidman, Winslet, and Ronan have each received some recognition from awards bodies but would feel like major surprises at this point to make the field.

Best Actor:

Daniel Craig is still in the field after that BAFTA miss - right? Right??

1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
2. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

—————————————————————————————————————

5. Daniel Craig (Queer)

——————————————————————————

6. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

7. Hugh Grant (Heretic)

The Top 4 for best actor feels very safe. Brody and Chalamet are in winning contention. Fiennes isn't quite there but should comfortably make the field. Domingo has been the one consistent nomination for Sing Sing in what has been a rollercoaster awards season for that film. That leaves the final slot between Craig, Stan, and Grant. Many were ready to lock up Craig as Actor #5 until he shockingly missed a BAFTA lineup of 6 in favor of both Stan and Grant. That said, I think he still has enough going for him to make it in - notably a SAG nomination he was not anticipated to receive.

Stan's issue may just come down to working too much this year - in addition to The Apprentice, he has received awards recognition for A Different Man (including a comedy/musical Golden Globe win), and he may end up splitting votes with himself. I'd love nothing more than to see Grant get in, considering how horrendous horror films typically do with above-the-line Oscar nominations, and he has quietly received Golden Globe, Critics' Choice, and BAFTA nominations, but I don't think it will be enough to topple either Craig or Stan at this point.

Best Director:

Can Brady Corbet design his own path to best director glory for The Brutalist?

1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
2. Sean Baker (Anora)

—————————————————————————————————————

3. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)

4. Edward Berger (Conclave)

5. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

——————————————————————————

6. Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

7. RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys)

—————————————————————————————————————

8. Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)

9. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

10. John M. Chu (Wicked)

11. Mohammed Rassoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)

I'm going with the general consensus Top 5 for director at this moment, but there's usually at least one surprise so I'm not expecting to get this one right. Corbet and Baker should be safely in. Audiard and Berger feel like they should be in at this point, but I could see either of them getting replaced by an out-of-left-field choice. I think international voters should help Fargeat to that final slot. There's a slew of other contenders out there, notably Villeneuve and Ross, who have received acclaim and could upend one of the predicted five. I'd feel better about Payal Kapadia getting that "arthouse international" slot that the director's branch has gone for in previous years if there weren't already three non-American directors and three Cannes premieres in my predicted lineup. James Mangold could be a dark horse here due to his DGA nomination.

Best Picture:

It’s been a rocky season for Sing Sing - will it make the best picture lineup?

1. Emilia Pérez
2. Anora

3. Conclave

4. The Brutalist

5. A Complete Unknown

6. Wicked

7. Dune: Part Two

8. The Substance

—————————————————————————————————————

9. A Real Pain

10. Sing Sing

——————————————————————————

11. Nickel Boys

—————————————————————————————————————

12. September 5

13. Challengers

14. Nosferatu

15. All We Imagine as Light

Now we're at the granddaddy of them all - Best Picture. In my mind, we've got 8 locks, and then 3 films competing for the final 2 slots. I really don't feel great about leaving any of those final 3 out, but one of them has to go.

The top 4 can probably be in any order at this point but those seem like the films that are not just safely in but have a decent shot at winning Best Picture. A Complete Unknown has risen far above the cut line after making it into multiple precursor lineups of 5. Wicked and Dune: Part Two don't seem like winners at this point but should be comfortably in the field. And despite my initial doubts, at this point I'd be surprised if The Substance missed as well.

That brings us to the final two slots, which to me are between Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Real Pain. A lot of people seem to think Nickel Boys is likely in, and I'm not quite sure why - it has done exceptionally well with critics groups, but not with key Oscar precursors. Sing Sing and A Real Pain also have some precursor misses that puts these three films on a pretty even playing field.

So, I'm going to try to look at the nomination packages for each of these. A Real Pain isn't getting a ton of nominations, but it seems like a sure thing to get screenplay and supporting actor nominations, and in the case of supporting actor, Kieran Culkin is the heavy favorite to win. A supporting actor win and a screenplay nomination is a decent package for a Best Picture nominee. In the case of Sing Sing, there's a lot up in the air, but Colman Domingo should get in for best actor, and it also has possible nominations in supporting actor, screenplay, and song. For Nickel Boys, nothing is guaranteed - it will probably get at least one of cinematography or screenplay, and RaMell Ross has a shot at a director nomination, but there isn't anything I'm 100% confident in like Domingo for Sing Sing and Culkin for A Real Pain. Nickel Boys is also receiving more divisive reactions than the other two, despite being very well praised by critics. Now, we've seen Best Picture nominees get in with very small packages in the past - Women Talking and Selma come to mind - so I don't think this alone eliminates Nickel Boys by any means. At this point, however, it's the film I feel the least confident in of the three, and as a result I'm going with A Real Pain and Sing Sing over Nickel Boys for the final two nominations.

I don't anticipate seeing any dark horse contenders here, but I'll name a couple that could conceivably surprise. September 5 has received some surprise precursors, including the PGA Best Picture lineup, but I currently don't have it getting any nominations. It could receive editing and/or screenplay in theory, but I think a lot would need to go right for it to sneak into the field. I have Challengers with a pretty decent nomination haul of editing, score, and song, and it could maybe get a screenplay nomination as well. That could be enough to make the race a little more interesting. Similarly, Nosferatu could maybe ride its below-the-line package to a nomination not too dissimilar from Dune: Part Two. All We Imagine as Light could possibly be a really long shot if it receives major international support, but I can't see it getting nominated over Nickel Boys, let alone the other titles in the field.

And so, that brings us to the end of the twenty feature film Oscar nominations. Not sure how successful these will be but hopefully I get a few right and I get a few wrong that leads to some fun surprises.

I'm going to take some wild guesses at the shorts below.

BONUS: A Random Guess of the Short Film Nominations:

Predicting the short film nominations is an absolute crapshoot - it's so hard to tell what is even likely to get nominated from the shortlists. I have absolutely no intel on these films, so I've devised a plan to make wild guesses here. There are 15 films shortlisted for each category (live action, animated, and documentary). I'm going to go to GoldDerby's current odds and predict the following:

        

        - The top 2 in odds in each category

        - One film currently ranked #3-#5

        - One film currently ranked #6-#9

        - One film currently ranked #10-#15

Special preference in the case of challenging decision-making will be given to films with fun titles.

Best Animated Short:

1. Beautiful Men

2. A Bear Named Wojtek

3. Yuck!

4. Me

5. The Wild-Tempered Clavier

Best Documentary Short:

1. I Am Ready, Warden

2. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

3. Makayla's Voice: A Letter to the World

4. Chasing Roo

5. The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Best Live Action Short:

1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

2. The Masterpiece

3. An Orange from Jaffa

4. I'm Not a Robot

5. A Lien