Final 2025 Oscar Winner Predictions (with Confidence Points!)
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| Al Pacino's eyes saw Oppenheimer last year - what will our eyes see on the Best Picture card this year? |
It's hard to believe that it's already time for the 2025 Academy Awards, but here we are. I'm typically more interested in what films get nominated versus what ends up winning, and as a result I tend to tune out during "Phase 2" of Oscar season, frequently because it's often pretty obvious what is winning most categories. This year, however, there's a ton of races that are too close to call, which should make for a pretty suspenseful ceremony.
I'm still way behind when it comes to catching up with the nominated films - at a certain point I decided I had 2024 burnout and would catch up with stuff like The Brutalist, Wicked, and A Complete Unknown later in the year. As a result, I feel somewhat unprepared for the ceremony this year, but hey, I bet most of America only watched 1-2 (at most) of the Best Picture nominees and a handful of other films throughout the year, so I'm just gonna be watching this a little more like a member of the general public than as an "Oscar film fanatic" this year.
That's not going to stop me from taking a shot at predicting each of the 23 categories. For an added twist, I'm assigning each prediction "confidence points" ranging from 1 to 23 (I can only use each number once) based on how confident I am in my predictions. Categories that seem locked up will receive high points, toss-up categories will receive low points. At the end, in addition to tallying up how many of the 23 categories I got correct, I'll add up my confidence points and see how well I did in that aspect.
I'll go through the categories from most to least confident, so I'm counting down from 23 to 1 on my confidence points scale. Here we go...
High Confidence:
Best Supporting Actor - Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) (23 points)
Culkin has swept the season. There's no reason to expect any other result on Oscar night.
Best Supporting Actress - Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) (22 points)
See above. Saldaña hasn't missed, despite a push for Ariana Grande, and she's avoided all of the backlash to Emilia Pérez. It would be truly stunning if she lost here.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling - The Substance (21 points)
This award feels like it was made for The Substance and I don't think anything else in this category is really competitive.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Conclave (20 points)
With Conclave in position to compete for Best Picture, this feels pretty sewn up.
Best Costume Design - Wicked (19 points)
The general consensus seems to be overly positive for Wicked here.
Best Original Song - "El Mal" (Emilia Pérez) (18 points)
The backlash to Emilia Pérez may impact some other categories, but I don't think it's this one, primarily because I just can't see what else the Academy would go for in this category.
Best Production Design - Wicked (17 points)
I'm a little less confident in production design vs. costume design for Wicked just because I think there's a slight chance The Brutalist could surprise here - but the common sense pick is alignment between production design and costumes (as is frequently the case).
Best Visual Effects - Dune: Part Two (16 points)
The Visual Effects Society going with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes makes it seem like there may be a race - but they've gone with Apes movies before and nothing has translated to an Oscar win so I'm calling their bluff here. I'd be surprised if Dune: Part Two loses.
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| Hey look! I had one more Anora screenshot saved on my computer. |
Medium Confidence:
Best Original Score - The Brutalist (15 points)
People seem to love the score of The Brutalist and from the snippets I've heard it makes a lot of sense as a winner. For some reason my brain keeps considering a potential Conclave shock win here, however, which is why I don't have this category in the "high confidence" section.
Best Actor - Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) (14 points)
We have a race here after Timothee Chalamet's SAG win, but I think it's too little too late. Chalamet's time will come, and I feel pretty good about the Academy handing Adrien Brody his second Best Actor trophy.
Best Sound - Dune: Part Two (13 points)
If this were still two categories - sound editing and sound mixing - I think we'd see a split, with either Wicked or A Complete Unknown taking the mixing category. Hence, this is a closer race than some of the tech categories, but in the end I think Dune: Part Two prevails.
Best Picture - Anora (12 points)
I've got the grand prize category right in the middle from confidence points. Anora's DGA, PGA and WGA victories seem to have locked it up, but its underperformance at televised award shows makes it a weaker frontrunner than most. Conclave is the other possibility here, with victories at BAFTA and SAG. Both films are well liked, which should fare well on the preferential ballot. I'd give Conclave about a 15-20% chance of pulling off the upset, but I think it's most likely that Sean Baker and company take home the evening's top prize.
Best Cinematography - The Brutalist (11 points)
Maria picked up an ASC victory and I've heard some buzz for Nosferatu as a dark horse contender here, so there is some competition. However, neither of those films are in Best Picture, and I think the admiration for The Brutalist will carry it to the top.
Best Director - Sean Baker (Anora) (10 points)
There's certainly a chance that Brady Corbet could be rewarded here for The Brutalist, but I feel reasonably comfortable about going with the DGA winner and director of the Best Picture frontrunner Sean Baker.
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| Does Flow have a shot at either best international or best animated feature? |
Low Confidence:
Best Original Screenplay - Anora (9 points)
There's been potential for chaos in original screenplay since The Substance won at Critics' Choice, and it was amplified by A Real Pain's surprise BAFTA win. When the smoke clears, however, I think this is Anora's to lose - the track record of Best Picture frontrunner winning here seems to translate better than a film that isn't in even nominated for Best Picture (A Real Pain) or a film with no wins in any awards body with Oscar voting overlap (The Substance).
Best Animated Feature - The Wild Robot (8 points)
I'm trying my hardest to work up the courage to predict Flow here - it would be my preferred choice over The Wild Robot and has garnered plenty of international buzz - and we need to look no further than last year to see a non-American animated feature (The Boy and the Heron) surprise over the favorite. With all due respect to Gints Zilboladis, however, he does not have the legendary status of Hayao Miyazaki, and The Wild Robot receiving not just a best score nomination but also a best sound nomination indicates broader support throughout the Academy than Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse had last year. My heart says Flow but my brain says The Wild Robot. I'm going with my brain, but we'll see if my heart wins out in the end.
Best Animated Short Film - Yuck! (7 points)
I was originally planning on putting the 3 short film categories at the very bottom, but I feel strangely comfortable going with Yuck! here - it has a fun title and from what I've heard is a pretty accessible film, which are typically good elements to have in your animated short winner.
Best Editing - Conclave (6 points)
Editing feels like one of the toughest races to call, and I could see legitimate cases for any of the five films winning, which is truly a rarity. BAFTA going with Conclave is pushing it above the rest for me, although I could just as easily see Anora or even Wicked surprising here.
Best International Feature - I'm Still Here (5 points)
I think I called this a locked category for Emilia Pérez in my nominations predictions, and that statement is looking foolish as ever now. An international film with 13 total nominations would typically be a shoo-in to win here, but the Emilia Pérez backlash combined with the passion for I'm Still Here that led to a Best Actress nomination and a very surprising Best Picture nomination has made this a tight race, and in the end I think the passion for I'm Still Here will win out. It would be unprecedented so I don't feel confident in it at all, but it feels like the right call at this point in time.
Best Actress - Mikey Madison (Anora) (4 points)
This seems like the biggest toss-up of the night, at least among the major categories. Demi Moore has a lot going for her - career narrative, key wins at Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG (all over Mikey Madison), and she's in the likely makeup winner (which certainly helped recent acting winners Brendan Fraser in The Whale and Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye). It's certainly understandable why many are predicting her to win. Mikey Madison's package is BAFTA and being in the Best Picture frontrunner, which doesn't seem like a lot, but I think it's enough to tip the scales in her favor.
Of all the precursors for Best Actress, BAFTA tends to line up the best with the eventual Oscar winner, in particular when races are tight - look at Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), and Emma Stone (Poor Things). The one time it faltered recently was with Cate Blanchett (Tár), but I think that can be explained by the Academy's love for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Similarly, Poor Things turned out to be more beloved than Killers of the Flower Moon by the Academy last year, leading Stone over Lily Gladstone. And that's exactly what Madison has going for her this year - while people like The Substance, there's no question that Anora is the Academy's preferred film. Any concern about Madison's age should be dismissed when looking at recent winners like Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, and Emma Stone's first win for La La Land. The Academy has had no issue awarding younger actresses in the recent past.
There's also a nonzero chance Fernanda Torres could surprise here, but I don't think it's very likely. In the end, I think Olivia Colman's win is a pretty good comparison - Glenn Close may have had the career narrative and the majority of the precursors, but Colman had the BAFTA and was in the more loved film, and that led her to an Oscar victory.
Best Documentary Feature - No Other Land (3 points)
I don't feel good at all about No Other Land winning - despite its massive critical acclaim, it has yet to acquire U.S. distribution and I've heard that some members are actively boycotting the film. There's a perfectly fine Ukraine documentary Porcelain War that's been nominated as well, and that seems to be a world conflict that Academy members are much more willing to engage with than the destruction of Palestine documented in No Other Land. I haven't seen either film, so I'm just going off of what I've heard, but the people who have seen No Other Land seem to really really like it and find it overwhelmingly powerful. I'm trusting that enough Academy members watched the film and felt that way to sneak No Other Land over the finish line, but I don't feel great about it at all.
Best Documentary Short Film - The Only Girl in the Orchestra (2 points)
Who knows what's going to happen when it comes to the shorts... from what I've heard, most of the documentaries nominated are pretty depressing, so I'm going with the more uplifting The Only Girl in the Orchestra, which probably felt like a palate cleanser to Academy members who binged them all at once.
Best Live Action Short Film - A Lien (1 point)
This was my random prediction from the lower end of the odds to get a nomination that ended up paying off, so I'm riding and/or dying with it. A Lien has a unique title, a topical subject matter, pretty good reviews, and it's the only title in English. Sounds like a winner to me.
That wraps up my 2025 Oscar winner predictions! Check back after the ceremony as I grade myself and perhaps share a couple other thoughts on the ceremony.
POST-CEREMONY UPDATE: I got 19/23 correct, only missing best live action short film, best editing, best animated short film, and best animated feature. I lost 1, 6, 7, and 8 points respectively on those categories, so as a whole I scored 254 out of 276 possible points. A very good performance all things considered, and while I'm kicking myself for not believing in FLOW, there's not too much to complain about. From a predictions standpoint, I'm most satisfied that my logic appeared to be sound with Mikey Madison and thus can use that same approach in future years.
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