Predictions for the 2026 Oscar Nominations
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I hope Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott were well compensated for delivering last year's Oscar nominations before the sun rose. |
Even though the rest of us are all ready to forget about 2025 and move ahead with 2026, our good friends at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Academy) like to spent the first 2+ months of the year still focusing on the immediate past. The Academy Award nominations for the films of 2025 are set to be announced at the crack of dawn on Thursday, January 22. I am always baffled as to why the nominations are announced so early in the morning - on the west coast, no less! - but for those of us in central time who work 9-5 jobs it's kind of a perfect time for tuning in right before starting the work day.
While I enjoy following the Oscar race and seeing what gets nominated and wins, I don't put much weight into it other than as a snapshot of what the (American) film industry likes and cherishes at the time. Some of these films will be considered classics decades down the road; others will likely be forgotten. And I'm sure there's no shortage of great films that aren't up for consideration here that will be looked back on fondly in the future. I don't get particularly involved in "rooting" for various films or performances, as frequently my tastes land a little outside what the general "Oscar voter" tastes are. I like to root for chaos instead, and as happy as I'd be to see One Battle After Another get a boatload of nominations, it's more exciting and thrilling to see a bunch of unpredictable choices on nomination morning.
I'm not super familiar with many of the categories. You may have noticed there's a new category this year, and it's anyone's guess what kind of trends we'll see develop for the Best Casting award. I've tried to provide some reasoning for all my picks, but I don't have much concrete evidence in most instances. The short film categories are such a toss up I used a random number generator for assistance. Odds are I'll miss several picks here and there, but hopefully I've got the right idea about the majority in most categories.
I'm organizing this as follows: starting with the below the line categories, and ending with above the line categories, building up to Best Picture. The three short film categories will be at the very end, since those are absolute random guesses with no educated thought behind them. I'm also organizing my lineup with various line breaks as follows:
Locks—————————————————————————————————————Currently in the field, but could miss——————————————————————————Not in the field, but strong contenders—————————————————————————————————————Dark horse contenders
The number of locks and contenders will vary with each category. For shortlisted categories, I have included all possible contenders somewhere in the prediction list.
Without further ado, let's jump into the below the line categories.
Below the Line Categories:
Best Animated Feature:
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| You've got a better chance of being slain by a demon hunter than for this to miss Best Animated Feature. |
1. KPop Demon Hunters2. Zootopia 23. Arco4. Elio5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain——————————————————————————6. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle7. Scarlet
At this point, anything other than KPop Demon Hunters winning the Best Animated Feature award would be a surprise - even the billion dollar success Zootopia 2. KPop Demon Hunters may have had the biggest cultural impact out of any film that came out in 2025 and it's been winning this award at other shows left and right. Alongside Zootopia 2 which should be locked for a nomination, I'd expect the critically acclaimed more arthouse-leaning titles Arco and Little Amélie or the Character of Rain to make it in, alongside Pixar's Elio. If there's a surprise, I think it's likely to come from the world of anime - either the Demon Slayer movie or Scarlet are possibilities.
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6. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
7. Scarlet
At this point, anything other than KPop Demon Hunters winning the Best Animated Feature award would be a surprise - even the billion dollar success Zootopia 2. KPop Demon Hunters may have had the biggest cultural impact out of any film that came out in 2025 and it's been winning this award at other shows left and right. Alongside Zootopia 2 which should be locked for a nomination, I'd expect the critically acclaimed more arthouse-leaning titles Arco and Little Amélie or the Character of Rain to make it in, alongside Pixar's Elio. If there's a surprise, I think it's likely to come from the world of anime - either the Demon Slayer movie or Scarlet are possibilities.
Best Documentary Feature:
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| How desirable will the Academy find My Undesirable Friends? |
**NO LOCKS**
—————————————————————————————————————1. 2000 Meters to Andriivka2. The Perfect Neighbor3. The Alabama Solution4. Apocalypse in the Tropics5. My Undesirable Friends: Part I - Last Air in Moscow——————————————————————————6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin7. Come See Me in the Good Light8. Cover-Up9. Seeds
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10. Holding Liat
11. Coexistence, My Ass!
12. Folktales
13. Cutting Through Rocks
14. Mistress Dispeller
15. Yanuni
The documentary category always has crazy unpredictable snubs, so I'm not convinced anything is safe. That said, documentarian Mstyslav Chernov's previous film 20 Days in Mariupol took home the top prize in the past, so I'd not at all be surprised to see his follow-up 2000 Meters to Andriivka, also centering on Ukrainian resistance forces, come out victorious here. The Perfect Neighbor is both good and very watchable, and should be in assuming there's no aversion to the police bodycam storytelling approach. I haven't seen The Alabama Solution or Apocalypse in the Tropics, but the subject matter for those both seem like the kind of film that could get nominated here. I'm going out on a limb for my fifth pick with My Undesirable Friends, a risky choice due to its nearly six-hour length but the rave reviews it's received since its 2024 festival run combined with it feeling like a must-watch "event film" moreso than anything else here is making me think it's got enough buzz to make the cut.
Best International Film:
Is there truly No Other Choice than to fill this category with NEON titles?
1. Sentimental Value (Norway)2. The Secret Agent (Brazil)3. It Was Just an Accident (France)4. Sirāt (Spain)—————————————————————————————————————5. No Other Choice (South Korea)——————————————————————————6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
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| Is there truly No Other Choice than to fill this category with NEON titles? |
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7. Left Handed-Girl (Taiwan)
8. Belén (Argentina)
9. Sound of Falling (Germany)
10. Kokuho (Japan)
11. All That's Left of You (Jordan)
12. The President's Cake (Iraq)
13. Palestine 36 (Palestine)
14. Late Shift (Switzerland)
15. Homebound (India)
The question for international feature is really whether or not NEON can pull off their monopoly on this category and be the distributor for all five nominees. It's seeming pretty likely that they will. Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, and It Was Just an Accident all have likely above-the-line nominations, including Best Picture, so it would be a true shock if any of them missed. Sirāt performed admirably on the shortlists and is a contender to get a sound and/or score nomination, so I'd feel pretty good about that getting in too. No Other Choice should be likely in as well as it's been discussed as a dark horse Best Picture nominee. The only reasons I could possibly see it missing is a desire to not give all five nominees to the same distributor and Park Chan-wook's films having surprising troubles at securing nominations in this category in the past (Decision to Leave seemed like a lock but missed a couple years ago). That said, I don't think any of the other contenders are anywhere near as strong - I think The Voice of Hind Rajab is the only one with a remote possibility. I'd give No Other Choice 90-95% odds to get nominated.
Best Cinematography:
Don't just dream of trains... dream of a cinematography nomination too!
1. Sinners2. One Battle After Another3. Train Dreams—————————————————————————————————————4. Frankenstein5. Nouvelle Vague——————————————————————————6. Marty Supreme7. Hamnet8. F19. Bugonia10. Sentimental Value—————————————————————————————————————11. Sound of Falling12. Wicked: For Good13. Sirāt14. Die My Love15. Song Sung Blue16. Ballad of a Small Player
As heavy best picture candidates I'd be pretty surprised if either Sinners or One Battle After Another are left off the nomination list. Train Dreams' Critics Choice win makes me feel pretty comfortable about it getting in here too. I personally didn't care for the way Frankenstein looked, but I'm clearly in the minority and think it'll probably get a nomination here. I'm going to pick a shocker for fun in the last spot and go with Nouvelle Vague, as the Academy often likes throwing a black-and-white film in here for grins and giggles. Far more likely, however, is that another Best Picture contender like Marty Supreme, Hamnet, F1, or Bugonia takes this spot.
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| Don't just dream of trains... dream of a cinematography nomination too! |
Best Production Design:
Pay no attention to that Production Design nomination behind the curtain!
1. Sinners2. Frankenstein—————————————————————————————————————3. Hamnet4. Wicked: For Good5. One Battle After Another——————————————————————————6. Marty Supreme7. Avatar: Fire and Ash8. The Secret Agent
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| Pay no attention to that Production Design nomination behind the curtain! |
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9. The Phoenician Scheme
Sinners and Frankenstein seem like locks here, and I'd anticipate Hamnet and Wicked: For Good to materialize as well. For the last spot, I'm going with the strength of One Battle After Another to outlast the more period setting of Marty Supreme or the bigger budget Avatar: Fire and Ash - although either of those are just as likely to snag this spot. For a long shot that is extremely unlikely but would be novel, Wes Anderson's films always have immaculate production design, and The Phoenician Scheme is no different.
Best Costume Design:
It's alive! No, not the Frankenstein monster... Frankenstein's Best Costume Design chances!
1. Frankenstein2. Sinners—————————————————————————————————————3. Hamnet4. Wicked: For Good5. Hedda——————————————————————————6. One Battle After Another7. The Testament of Ann Lee8. Marty Supreme
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| It's alive! No, not the Frankenstein monster... Frankenstein's Best Costume Design chances! |
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9. Bugonia
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman
11. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Costume design tends to favor bold costumes and period pieces, which is why I feel the more contemporary One Battle After Another may miss in favor of something like Hedda. The rest of the nominees I feel pretty good about, although if there's anywhere for The Testament of Ann Lee to sneak in, maybe here is its best shot.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
You probably never would have guessed that this was The Rock, right?
1. Frankenstein2. Sinners3. Wicked: For Good—————————————————————————————————————4. The Smashing Machine5. Kokuho——————————————————————————6. One Battle After Another7. The Alto Knights8. The Ugly Stepsister—————————————————————————————————————9. Marty Supreme10. Nuremberg
Frankenstein and Sinners both have no shortage of makeup, and I feel solid about Wicked: For Good in here as well. Outside of that, I know they love their prosthetics and major transformations on actors, so I'll go with The Smashing Machine and the Japanese kabuki drama Kokuho, though it just as easily could be the double makeup duty on Robert De Niro in The Alto Knights. By sheer force One Battle After Another could sneak in here, as could The Ugly Stepsister, though I'm doubtful they'll nominate three horror films and the other two should be locks.
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| You probably never would have guessed that this was The Rock, right? |
Best Sound:
Hey, does a Best Sound nomination for Sirāt SOUND okay to you?
1. Sinners2. F13. One Battle After Another—————————————————————————————————————4. Sirāt5. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning——————————————————————————6. Avatar: Fire and Ash7. Wicked: For Good8. Frankenstein
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| Hey, does a Best Sound nomination for Sirāt SOUND okay to you? |
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9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Superman
For sound, Sinners and One Battle After Another are likely in and they tend to like racing movies here, which should give F1 the nod. If you've seen Sirāt, you'll probably agree that a sound nomination may be the most likely place to award that film, and considering the number of shortlist mentions it got, I think it gets in. For the last slot, there's numerous other contenders from big budget titles like Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good, and Frankenstein, plus the obligatory music film in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, but I'm going to pick an upset here and go with Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning. The previous MI film got nominated here and I think the voters may want to see the final entry in this series awarded in some way.
Best Visual Effects:
You mean they didn't shoot this on location?
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash—————————————————————————————————————2. Frankenstein3. Wicked: For Good4. F15. Superman——————————————————————————6. The Lost Bus7. Sinners—————————————————————————————————————8. Tron: Ares9. Jurassic World: Rebirth10. The Electric State
Visual effects can be a crapshoot and the only thing I know for sure is that Avatar: Fire and Ash is getting in and likely winning. They tend to go with populist films in this category so I feel like Frankenstein, Wicked: For Good, and Superman are all likely, and an F1 nomination seems like a reasonable assumption given the rest of its likely package. I feel weird leaving out Sinners but it's bound to miss a nomination somewhere, so why not here? Don't sleep on The Lost Bus, either, which has made a last-minute surge in the odds.
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| You mean they didn't shoot this on location? |
Best Score:
What was the score of Marty's last table tennis match? Oh wait... not what I meant by "Score".
1. Sinners2. One Battle After Another3. Hamnet—————————————————————————————————————4. Marty Supreme5. Bugonia——————————————————————————6. Frankenstein7. Sirāt8. F19. Train Dreams10. Wicked: For Good
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| What was the score of Marty's last table tennis match? Oh wait... not what I meant by "Score". |
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11. Avatar: Fire and Ash
12. Hedda
13. A House of Dynamite
14. Nuremberg
15. Jay Kelly
16. Wake Up Dead Man
17. Diane Warren: Relentless
18. Tron: Ares
19. Captain America: Brave New World
20. Truth and Treason
When it comes to score, I'd be shocked if any of Sinners, One Battle After Another, or Hamnet missed here. There's plenty of other options for the remaining two spots. Lots of people are high on the Sirāt score but I'm wary of predicting an electronic-heavy score after Challengers missed last year. Alexandre Desplat and Hans Zimmer are big names who could waltz in for Frankenstein and F1 respectively, and a Train Dreams nomination wouldn't surprise me either. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict what I think are two of the more memorable scores of the year, however, with Marty Supreme and Bugonia - both somewhat unconventional picks for this category but not quite as much as something like Sirāt.
Best Original Song:
Maybe the KPop demon hunters can take care of Diane Warren while they're at it.
1. "Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters)2. "I Lied to You" (Sinners)3. "Dear Me" (Diane Warren: Relentless)4. "The Girl in the Bubble" (Wicked: For Good)—————————————————————————————————————5. "Train Dreams" (Train Dreams)——————————————————————————6. "Drive" (F1)7. "No Place Like Home" (Wicked: For Good)8. "Last Time (I Seen the Sun)" (Sinners)9. "Dying to Live" (Billy Idol Should Be Dead)10. "Dream as One" (Avatar: Fire and Ash)
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| Maybe the KPop demon hunters can take care of Diane Warren while they're at it. |
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11. "Salt Then Sour Then Sweet" (Come See Me in the Good Light)
12. "As Alive as You Need Me to Be" (Tron: Ares)
13. "Highest 2 Lowest" (Highest 2 Lowest)
14. "Our Love" (The Ballad of Wallis Island)
15. "Sweet Dreams of Joy" (Viva Verdi!)
"Golden" seems like a lock to take home this award, and "I Lied to You" from Sinners should be safe. Diane Warren always manages to sneak in here so I'll predict her until it doesn't happen. And despite its underperformance, I have a hard time believing Wicked: For Good will be blanked here, and it seems "The Girl in the Bubble" is the song people like the most. For the last spot, I think Nick Cave's titular song from Train Dreams makes the most sense based on precursors and its likely Best Picture nomination status. For other contenders, look out for Ed Sheeran's song "Drive" from F1, double nominations for Wicked: For Good and/or Sinners, and a Billy Idol track that could sneak in the way Elton John did last year.
Best Film Editing:
F1 might lap the competition en route to an editing nomination... provided there's no debris on the course.
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| F1 might lap the competition en route to an editing nomination... provided there's no debris on the course. |
1. One Battle After Another2. Sinners3. F1—————————————————————————————————————4. Marty Supreme5. Hamnet——————————————————————————6. Sentimental Value7. Frankenstein8. The Secret Agent9. No Other Choice—————————————————————————————————————10. Weapons11. It Was Just an Accident12. Bugonia13. A House of Dynamite
One Battle After Another, Sinners, and F1 all seem likely here, with F1's recent Golden Globe editing win giving it a big boost here. Outside of that, I think the way Marty Supreme is paced lends itself well to an editing nomination. I've got Hamnet in the final slot but could see it going to any of the other likely Best Picture contenders as well.
Best Casting:
Impressive that the casting director found real vampires for Sinners.
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| Impressive that the casting director found real vampires for Sinners. |
1. Sinners2. One Battle After Another3. Marty Supreme—————————————————————————————————————4. Sentimental Value5. Hamnet——————————————————————————6. Weapons7. The Secret Agent8. Frankenstein9. Wicked: For Good—————————————————————————————————————10. Sirāt
It's the first year of this category, so who knows what they're going to do. I'm expecting this to align closely with the heavy Best Picture contenders, although the less-sprawling casts of Sentimental Value and Hamnet may be ripe for an upset at the hands of something like Weapons, which had to replace the vast majority of its initial cast.
Above the Line Categories:
Best Original Screenplay:
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| If this misses a Best Original Screenplay nomination the Academy may say "It Was Just an Accident" |
1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
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4. It Was Just an Accident
5. Weapons
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6. Sorry, Baby
7. Blue Moon
8. The Secret Agent
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9. Jay Kelly
10. If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Best Original Screenplay has the potential for some chaos. While it would be a shocker to see any of Sinners, Marty Supreme, or Sentimental Value miss, I really do think the other two spots are up for grabs. I'm holding onto It Was Just an Accident and if there's not enough room in director for Jafar Panahi, this could be the most likely place for the Academy to dole out a nomination. For the last slot, I think they may go a little more commercial and go with a crowdpleaser that happened to have a creative script in Weapons. I could just as easily see that final slot going to Sorry, Baby, however - there's often a lone nominee in one of the screenplay categories and this may be the best bet for one this year. Alternatively, I don't think a strong showing for Blue Moon is off the table, and with the rise of The Secret Agent it could very well land in here as well. Jay Kelly and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You seem extremely unlikely at this point, but a nomination for them is not impossible.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
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| Do aliens dream of getting Adapted Screenplay nominations? |
1. One Battle After Another2. Hamnet—————————————————————————————————————3. Bugonia4. Train Dreams5. Frankenstein——————————————————————————6. Wicked: For Good7. No Other Choice—————————————————————————————————————8. Wake Up Dead Man9. Nouvelle Vague
In the case of Best Adapted Screenplay, I feel pretty good about the top five. One Battle After Another and Hamnet should be in no problem. Bugonia and Train Dreams getting in here feels likely given their odds at Best Picture. And while Frankenstein's screenplay hasn't been the aspect of that film garnering the most praise, it's a much stronger contender than anything else. That said, if there's a surprise here, it may be No Other Choice, as this is likely its best shot at an above-the-line nomination. Similarly, if Wicked: For Good is going to make a last-minute run at a Best Picture nomination, it probably has to get in here.
Best Supporting Actress:
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1. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
2. Amy Madigan (Weapons)
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3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
4. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
5. Odessa A'zion (Marty Supreme)
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6. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
7. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
8. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme)
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9. Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
10. Regina Hall (One Battle After Another)
Supporting actress is wild and I don't feel particularly strong about anyone outside of Teyana Taylor and Amy Madigan. It would be a surprise to see both Sentimental Value actresses miss, and though Elle Fanning has the name recognition I feel like Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas has the more Oscar-friendly role. I'm going out on a limb and saying that passion for Sinners and Marty Supreme will lead to an Ariana Grande snub. Wunmi Mosaku has done pretty well with nominations thus far, and Odessa A'zion's Critics Choice nomination is putting her on an eerily similar rise to Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown last year. They're both relatively unknown (to the Academy at least, who I'm guessing haven't seen His House or Fresh Kills) but have the potential to get it done. I think Gwyneth Paltrow's odds are lower but she could sneak in if similar trends to Belfast and The Fabelmans occur again where a more veteran actor takes a surprising supporting nomination over their co-stars.
For long shots, Emily Blunt has received some nominations for The Smashing Machine, though I don't expect that film to get much else other than Makeup & Hairstyling. And if One Battle After Another is having a really good day, maybe Regina Hall can be a double nominee with Taylor.
Best Supporting Actor:
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| They're giving a Swede a nomination for playing a Norwegian? Surely you can't be serious. |
1. Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
2. Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)
3. Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
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4. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
5. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
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6. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)
7. Miles Caton (Sinners)
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8. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
9. Andrew Scott (Blue Moon)
10. William H. Macy (Train Dreams)
Of all the acting races, the Best Supporting Actor nominations appear on paper to be the most locked up - but there's always the possibility for surprises. Stellan Skarsgård, fresh off a Golden Globe, might be the favorite here. Benicio Del Toro has been racking up critic victories, and I feel pretty confident that Mescal is safe here as well.
I'd personally be pretty shocked if Sean Penn misses, but there's a chance he'll split votes with Del Toro. Likewise, Elordi's victory in this category at Critic's Choice should put him in the field, but I can't help but feel there's a chance he's a Charles Melton-esque performance more beloved online than by Oscar voters who could potentially miss a nomination. If there's a surprise, it could be Adam Sandler, who puts in an Oscar-friendly performance in Jay Kelly, or Miles Caton after his surprise BAFTA nomination. Longshots could include Delroy Lindo on Sinners' best day, or maybe Andrew Scott or William H. Macy.
Best Actress:
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| Does Rose Byrne have the legs to kick Jessie Buckley off the podium? |
1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
2. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
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3. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
4. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
5. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)
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6. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
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7. Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)
8. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)
Jessie Buckley is the favorite, but Rose Byrne is nipping at her heels thanks to all the critic awards she's received. Those are the only two nominees I really feel safe about. I think it's a pick three out of four scenario for the remaining slots between Emma Stone, Renate Reinsve, Chase Infiniti, and Kate Hudson. I've got Hudson as the odd one out due to her film just having less praise and exposure compared to the other three, but they all have their flaws - Infiniti is a newcomer, Reinsve missed some key precursors, and voters may steer clear of Stone, who has won two Best Actress Oscars recently, in favor of other performances. I wouldn't be surprised if Hudson sneaks in over any of them.
Amanda Seyfried and Cynthia Erivo seemed like strong contenders at one point, but have done next to nothing in precursors and look like long shots at best as things stand today.
Best Actor:
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| The Secret is out - this Agent should be getting a Best Actor nomination. |
1. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
2. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
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4. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
5. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
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6. Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
7. Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
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8. Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)
I've got three locks in this category - Chalamet is the odds-on favorite, Moura should have a nomination sealed up after his Golden Globes win, and DiCaprio's strong performance in the heavy best-picture favorite missing would be a shocker. Many would consider Michael B. Jordan a lock as well, though I'd have him as a potential snub candidate and on the next tier down with Ethan Hawke, who has received pretty much everything he needs but would likely be the only nominee not in a Best Picture nominated film.
Those are my predicted five, but it's not unlikely that either Jesse Plemons or Joel Edgerton could receive nominations. Plemons made the Actor awards field of five, while Edgerton received a Critics Choice nomination (although in a field of 6). A potential long shot contender is Oscar Isaac, if Frankenstein is having its best day.
Best Director:
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| Imagine Agnes' reaction if Chloé Zhao misses this category. |
1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
2. Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
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3. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
4. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)
5. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident)
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6. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
7. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
8. Kleber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent)
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9. Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia)
10. Clint Bentley (Train Dreams)
This race seems all but over in favor of Paul Thomas Anderson, but the rest of the potential nominee permutations are fascinating. The only other director I feel confident in is Chloé Zhao. Ryan Coogler probably should be a lock, but the Academy's snubs of Greta Gerwig and Denis Villeneuve for their more populist films in recent years makes me concerned that he could potentially be the odd man out if there's a shocker. However, Sinners is a stronger contender than both Barbie and Dune, so let's pencil him in for now.
I then think it's a five-horse race for two spots, and I can see strong cases for them all. Guillermo del Toro may be the most beloved in the industry and with his film looking strong in both above-the-line and below-the-line categories, this may be his year for a nomination. Jafar Panahi has the best narrative of any director when you consider everything he has to go through to keep making films, and I think him finally having a major semi-mainstream breakthrough film means it's the perfect time for a career nomination in this category. I feel bad leaving out both Josh Safdie and Joachim Trier, however, especially Safdie who has a DGA nomination. And with the surge of The Secret Agent, it's possible Kleber Mendonça Filho passes someone (likely Panahi) to sneak into the final slot.
It's hard for me to see anyone else getting into the field, but if you squint hard, maybe on their best days Yorgos Lanthimos or Clint Bentley could get nominations.
Best Picture:
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| Viva la Best Picture Nomination! |
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. The Secret Agent
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8. Train Dreams
9. Bugonia
10. It Was Just an Accident
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11. Weapons
12. F1
13. Avatar: Fire and Ash
14. Wicked: For Good
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15. Blue Moon
16. Sirāt
17. No Other Choice
We've finally made it to the grand prize category. We don't need to spend any time on One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Frankenstein - those are all getting nominated. Sentimental Value underperformed at the Actor (née SAG) award nominations but has done just fine elsewhere and as a strong contender in directing, acting, and writing shouldn't miss here. The Secret Agent might even be more of a lock than Sentimental Value after defeating it in best international feature at both the Golden Globes and the Critic's Choice awards. Those seven all feel pretty safe at this point.
I think there's three main contenders for the final three slots and at the moment I'd be surprised to see any of them miss... but the Best Picture lineup can't be that easy, right? Still, Train Dreams has great word of mouth and likely cinematography and screenplay nominations with a shot at Best Actor too, and Netflix knows what they're doing as a campaigner and should have no issue getting a second film in here. I've doubted Bugonia's chances all year but it's quite simply performed better than all the remaining titles, and its strong BAFTA nomination performance should boost my confidence.
It Was Just an Accident is a personal favorite of mine, but I'm starting to get worried about its Best Picture chances. I thought it was a lock at one point, but with the way The Secret Agent has swooped past it, it would occupy an unprecedented third foreign language and third NEON slot in the lineup. Still, a Palme d'Or win has been a great indicator of a nomination in recent years, and I think that plus its narrative trumps any other contenders. We should get an indication when original screenplay and director announced. If it makes both I think it's safely in. If it only gets one, I'd start to get nervous. If it misses both, I don't think it makes the cut.
Of the remaining contenders, I never would have thought Weapons or F1 would be in the conversation, but they both have a PGA nomination to their name, which could play very strong here. Weapons has an almost certain supporting actress nomination and a shot at a screenplay nomination and that may be enough to push it over the top. F1 won't get any above-the-line nominations but should receive some technical nominations and has emerged as a top contender in editing, which has a strong correlation with Best Picture. Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good are blockbusters that have underperformed from an awards narrative thus far but made money, are part of franchises with previous Oscar success, and will likely have a couple nominations in other categories.
For dark horse contenders, there might be a universe where Blue Moon sneaks in, with an Ethan Hawke plus Best Original Screenplay package (and maybe a long shot nomination for Andrew Scott). Sirāt performed well enough on the shortlists to at least warrant a mention here. And No Other Choice feels like it would need a miracle - I can't even visualize what its awards package would be - but it's one of the most beloved titles on this list from critics and audiences, so it's got as good a shot as any other unmentioned title of pulling off an impossible nomination.
I feel pretty good that the ten nominees are somewhere mentioned above, but I felt that way last year too, and then I'm Still Here got nominated, so you never know.
BONUS: A Random Guess of the Short Film Nominations:
Predicting the short film nominations is an absolute crapshoot - it's so hard to tell what is even likely to get nominated from the shortlists. I know next to nothing about any of these - except for one, which I'll get to - so my prediction strategy is based on odds, titles, randomness, and overall vibes:
Best Animated Short:
1. Snow Bear
2. Éiru
3. Hurikán
4. Retirement Plan
5. Playing God
I went with the top two in the odds (Snow Bear and Éiru) and then put the rest into a list that I randomized using random.org and took the top 3 options. Let's see how this goes.
Best Live-Action Short:
1. Beyond Silence
2. The Boy with the White Skin
3. Ado
4. Two People Exchanging Saliva
5. Rock, Paper, Scissors
I was tempted to use the same strategy as before and indeed took the top two in the odds at the time - but then I saw some fun titles like Two People Exchanging Saliva and Rock, Paper, Scissors and thought those had to make the cut.
Best Documentary Short:
1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed with Only a Camera
3. We Were the Scenery
4. Rovina's Choice
5. Bad Hostage
Again I picked the top two in the odds and randomly selected Rovina's Choice and Bad Hostage. We Were the Scenery, however, is the one film I've seen - and not only do I like it, my one-line review that I composed while waiting for empanadas between movies at the Chicago Critics Film Festival has become one of the film's most liked reviews on Letterboxd. So I don't care how unlikely it is to get nominated - I'm contractually obligated to predict it here.
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And that will do it! I probably won't break any records, but hopefully these predictions will be better than the average layperson's attempt. And if they're not... I don't really care. Happy Oscar season!
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