Final 2026 Oscar Predictions (w/ Confidence Points)
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| For the first time in a while, there's some doubt as to what will win Best Picture. |
My goodness, we're finally here. It's the middle of March, so we're nearly a quarter of the way through 2026 and yet the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Academy) has still yet to decide what prizes they wish to award to the films of 2025. That changes Sunday night, as we can all shut the door on 2025 films for good and move on to bigger and better things.
That's not meant to diminish the films of 2025 - there's lots of great titles that received accolades, and numerous others that didn't too - but rather the ridiculous length of time that this awards season took this year, full of "controversies" and fandom wars and second-guessing initial thoughts on films. This year, however, the length definitely played a part of spicing things up, because had the ceremony been held a month earlier in February, I think it's reasonable to assume that a handful of the big above-the-line categories could have gone in a different direction. For the first time since CODA's come-from-behind win (and really since Parasite's underdog victory in early 2020) there's real doubt about what will win Best Picture, as both One Battle After Another and Sinners have made compelling cases. I'd also say 3 of the 4 major acting awards are uncertain at this stage, which should make for an exciting and suspenseful ceremony.
I'm not going to talk too much about my personal opinions here - I'll quickly say that I did watch all the Best Picture nominees this year and I think it's a pretty solid lineup overall, with One Battle After Another and The Secret Agent being my personal favorites. There's titles nominated in other categories however, like If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, Blue Moon, and Song Sung Blue that I still need to catch up with so I can't offer full perspectives on most of the other categories.
Like last year, I'll go through all the categories and make predictions of what I think will win, but I'm adding a little twist by giving "confidence points" to each prediction. Think of it as a bet from a bank of possible points about how confident I feel about my prediction. The points range from 1 to 24, one value for each category, and for lower confidence picks I'll wager fewer points than higher confidence picks. Nobody else does these predictions this way so there's nothing to compare to aside from my predictions last year, but I think it's a fun and unique way to organize these. Here we go, in order from most to least confidence, counting down from 24 to 1:
High Confidence:
Best Original Screenplay - Sinners (24 points)
If the two Best Picture frontrunners were in the same screenplay category, we'd have the most competitive race of the night. Alas, they are not, so Sinners is winning this category easily. There's a 0% chance it loses.
Best Adapted Screenplay - One Battle After Another (23 points)
See above.
Best Animated Feature - KPop Demon Hunters (22 points)
You know what else aside from Sinners and One Battle After Another is a juggernaut? KPop Demon Hunters, which has permeated mainstream culture maybe more than any other film from this past year. In another year maybe Zootopia 2 or one of the more arthouse titles like Arco or Little Amelie or the Character of Rain would have a shot, but there's no way anything is toppling KPop Demon Hunters this year.
Best Actress - Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) (21 points)
The other three acting categories are pretty competitive, but Buckley has swept the awards season in Best Actress and I bet her name's engraved on the trophy already. Maybe if One Battle or Sinners had a lead actress there'd be some competition here, but instead Buckley's biggest competitor is probably Rose Byrne, who is a lone nominee for her film. This is also the best opportunity for the Academy to give Hamnet - the film most likely in 3rd place for Best Picture - an award.
Best Visual Effects - Avatar: Fire and Ash (20 points)
Maybe if Sinners is stronger than we're even imagining now, it could have an outside chance at a major upset, but every year an Avatar film comes out it seems the visual effects community just feels like there's nothing else on its level. I'm expecting that to continue here.
Best Casting - Sinners (19 points)
Casting is a brand new category, so there's definitely some uncertainty about how to predict this in the future. This year however, I think going with the Actor (formerly SAG) top prizewinner in Sinners (and industry legend Francine Maisler) makes too much sense to even consider anything else.
Best Original Song - "Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters) (18 points)
It's not insane to imagine a world where "I Lied to You" gets a lot of votes from people going crazy for Sinners... but "Golden" feels like it's just in a different stratosphere this year. It's easily the most popular song nominated in this category in some time and I'd be pretty stunned if it lost here.
Best Production Design - Frankenstein (17 points)
These next three categories are all pretty similar in terms of how their races have gone and which movie they're going to. I'm expecting Frankenstein to pick up three technical awards and am feeling most bullish about its elaborate production design.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Frankenstein (16 points)
While I'd love to see The Ugly Stepsister pull off a shock win, I don't think there's a chance in hell we are getting body horror wins in this category two years in a row. We'll have to settle for monster makeup instead.
Best Costume Design - Frankenstein (15 points)
Maybe something like Sinners or Hamnet has an outside shot here - but Frankenstein feels like the heavy favorite and I've got no reason to doubt it.
| What's the password for winning Best Picture? |
Medium Confidence:
Best Score - Sinners (14 points)
There's something about Ludwig Goransson winning yet another Oscar that's making me a little hesitant about putting a Sinners score win higher... but it's won its precursors and considering how important music is to the film, a win here makes perfect sense.
Best Editing - One Battle After Another (13 points)
There's historically been a strong correlation with both Best Picture and Best Sound in this category, so it's likely one of One Battle After Another, Sinners, or F1 winning this. That said, even if Sinners takes Best Picture, I think I have to lean with One Battle here - it's won in too many places and the sentiment that it's one of the best paced 160 minute movies is real.
Best Sound - F1 (12 points)
There's arguments for One Battle, Sinners, and maybe even Sirāt as a dark horse contender here, but in the end I think I have to default to the racing movie, which tends to have a lot of success here. F1 was clearly beloved by the Academy enough to get a Best Picture nomination. This is its best shot to pick up a win on Oscar night.
Best Director - Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) (11 points)
This seemed like a lock for PTA since the film came out, so the fact that some people are switching to Ryan Coogler is a testament to how much the love for Sinners has continued to grow throughout the season. Coogler has a narrative to be sure - no Black director has ever won this award in its nearly 100 years of existence - but Anderson is long overdue to take this award home, and I think the Academy feels that way as well.
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| Are 2 Michael B. Jordans better than 1 Timothée Chalamet? |
Low Confidence:
Best Cinematography - One Battle After Another (10 points)
I was considering predicting a Sinners win here and making Autumn Durald Arkapaw the first female cinematographer to win this category, but then I learned that One Battle After Another has an invincible precursor package of wins with ASC, BSC, and BAFTA. I can't predict against that. But this is one of the more competitive categories between the two, so if Sinners pulls the upset here, it may be a harbinger of our Best Picture outcome.
Best International Film - Sentimental Value (9 points)
In my head initially I thought this would be extremely tight between Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent, with both receiving Best Picture nominations and acting nominations. That said, after considering it more, I think Sentimental Value has to be the favorite - it overperformed with its acting nominations and did not suffer extreme backlash like Emilia Pérez last year, which opened the door for I'm Still Here to win. And despite a large South American contingent in the Academy, I'm not sure how likely it is to see a Brazilian film win here two years in a row.
Best Supporting Actor - Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) (8 points)
This has been one of the most chaotic categories over the course of awards season. First Benicio Del Toro racked up regional critic awards, then Jacob Elordi won the Critic's Choice award, then Stellan Skarsgard won the Golden Globe, and then Sean Penn won the BAFTA and Actor (formerly SAG) awards. The wild card here is Delroy Lindo, who wasn't nominated anywhere else but could potentially be a dark horse pick from Sinners superfans. There's several red flags about a Penn win here - he's not particularly well liked and doesn't give a rat's ass about the Oscars, not to mention he's already won two acting Oscars in the past - but that BAFTA and SAG combo is really strong, and his performance is the one that made the most sense as a winner in my mind from the get-go. I think Penn's out in front, but an upset isn't out of the realm of possibility.
Best Documentary Short Film - All the Empty Rooms (7 points)
The shorts are always a toss-up. That said, All the Empty Rooms has emerged in the odds as a major favorite in this category. I haven't seen any of the nominated shorts, so I'll have to hope that the hive mind is right about this one.
Best Live Action Short Film - Two People Exchanging Saliva (6 points)
When in doubt, go with the film with the catchiest title, or the one with recognizable actors in the cast. This one has both. (Vicky Krieps is the recognizable name thanks to Paul Thomas Anderson introducing her to an international audience with Phantom Thread, so it would be an extra fitting win in that regard).
Best Actor - Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) (5 points)
These final five categories really feel like they're up in the air to me. By all accounts Timothée Chalamet was the heavy favorite to win here, but he lost BAFTA to Robert Aramayo for I Swear (not nominated here) and then the Actor (formerly SAG) award to Michael B. Jordan. Losing BAFTA and SAG isn't great news for his momentum, beyond the controversy that arose from his arrogance promoting and supporting Marty Supreme. The surprise BAFTA win for Aramayo is what's really throwing a wrench into this, as nobody has a compelling winner package. In the end I'm going with Jordan based on his SAG win and momentum, but I wouldn't be surprised if Chalamet or even Leonardo DiCaprio came out on top.
Best Picture - One Battle After Another (4 points)
If you told me there would be doubt about who will win Best Picture a couple months ago, I wouldn't have believed you. Everything seemed to be trending One Battle's way not just in this category but for a sweep across the board. From a results perspective, Best Picture still should be firmly in One Battle After Another's court - it took the top prize at the Critics' Choice, Golden Globes (in the comedy category), BAFTAs, DGA, and PGA. That said, Sinners picking up the top prize at the Actor awards alongside Michael B. Jordan's victory has given the film momentum - it's clear there's a ton of passion for this film at the right time, and it didn't break the nomination record without a good reason - this is one of the industry's most beloved films in some time.
It's understandable that many are leaning into the momentum of Sinners as it's not uncommon to see a film with deeply passionate voters upset a frontrunner - look no further than Parasite over 1917 or Moonlight over La La Land. That said, there's a couple reasons I'm still leaning towards One Battle winning the grand prize. I'm not factoring in its loss to Hamnet at the Golden Globes as that was so long ago and there's no voter crossover. The two factors for me are a loss at PGA - that's the producers' guild, which often values successful films and those in the public consciousness more than most, and would have been a golden opportunity for a Sinners victory - and the international contingent at the Oscars - I think Sinners is a primarily American phenomenon and I'm not confident that international voters care about it nearly to the degree that Americans do. Best Picture is a preferential ballot where voters rank all 10 films, so this really will come down to the minutiae of where these two films rank on everyone's ballots. I'm sticking with One Battle, but don't be too surprised if Sinners ends up taking this home.
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